Monday, November 16, 2009

Maersk Signals A Slow Recovery

A.P. Moller-Maersk AS reported a hefty loss for the first nine months of the year, a sign that shipping will recover at a slower pace than trade as an excessive shipbuilding spree continues to take its toll.

Copenhagen-based Maersk said Thursday it lost $778 million for the period. Maersk, the world's biggest shipping company by volume, posted a profit of $3.5 billion a year earlier. Analysts had forecast roughly a $700 million loss.

Maersk expects to lose $1 billion this year.

"This is a worse development in the container market than we expected," said Jacob Pedersen, an analyst with Denmark's Sydbank AS.

Revenue from Maersk's oil and gas units are expected to stay flat from last year.

Shipping usually tracks trade closely because 90% of goods are moved on the seas, but that's not the case today.

Trade is recovering: The International Monetary Fund expects a 2.5% increase next year after an 11.9% drop in 2009. But shipping revenue is expected to lag behind because of deflated prices charged for moving containers.

Maersk's prices have fallen 32% on average from last year as volume fell just 3%, said Maersk Chief Executive Nils Smedegaard Andersen.

The industry's average price of moving a 40-foot container on the world's 42 main shipping routes was $2,040 in September, down 17% from a year earlier, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd., a London-based consulting firm.

Maersk's ills are emblematic of an industry that bet heavily on the trade boom early this decade. Companies ordered so many vessels that shipyards still have to deliver the equivalent of 40% of the world's current fleet, according to analysts.

"There's just no way the market can absorb all that," said Drewry analyst Philip Damas. "People are losing serious money in the container business right now."

Maersk and other carriers have responded by laying off staff, steaming slower, circumnavigating the expensive Suez Canal and docking some ships while canceling orders for others.

But that's not enough. Mr. Andersen said he expects that "the container market and the tanker market—the shipping industry in general—will remain under pressure in 2010."

Even recent price increases will be cold comfort. "Rates are edging back up, but they are still below the entry level of 2009," he said, and aren't rising faster than fuel costs.

Sydbank's Mr. Pedersen said it will take time for the effects of rate increases to trickle down to the bottom line. "Shipping companies often secure contracts months in advance."

Maersk isn't the only carrier experiencing major difficulties. Neptune Orient Lines Ltd., the world's fifth-biggest container carrier, projected a loss of $636 million this year. German container port operator HHLA AG said Thursday its 2009 container revenue would fall 30%.

Shipping of dry-bulk goods, such as wheat and coal, is faring better than of containers and oil tankers. The Baltic Dry Index is up more than fourfold from a year ago.

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